In France, Thousands Protest a War on Iraq

13 October 2002

By Keith B. Richburg
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, October 13, 2002; Page A26

PARIS, Oct. 12 -- Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets of Paris and other French cities today to protest any American-led military strike on Iraq, underscoring the difficult choices facing French President Jacques Chirac and his center-right government as they try to find a compromise with the Bush administration on how to deal with Saddam Hussein.

While today's protests were relatively small -- about 6,000 people in Paris -- the French public appears largely opposed to any military action against Iraq. The U.S. push for another Gulf War feeds into long-held anxieties about America's unparalleled power in the world and French perceptions of their own reduced role on the international stage, according to analysts.

Chirac has called for a tough U.N. Security Council resolution on resuming arms inspections in Iraq, but he has insisted that any threat of military force come later in a separate resolution. The administration of President Bush wants one resolution that joins a demand for a return of inspectors to Iraq with an immediate threat of military action if Baghdad fails to comply.

A compromise is likely, many analysts say, if only because Chirac would not want France left out of a key international decision by its most important strategic ally, the United States. But the anti-war sentiment here -- also displayed earlier this week in a spirited National Assembly debate -- shows the delicacy of Chirac's balancing act.

"France is in a very difficult position," said Philippe Moreau Defarges of the French Institute for International Relations. "France is an ally of the United States and knows it -- we know we belong to the Western camp. On the other hand, we don't know what would be the outcome of a war. Mostly, public opinion is against the war. Most people in France do not understand why this war now. Even if Saddam Hussein is a dangerous man, why now?"

Like Chirac, Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin also appears to be facing tough choices, analysts said. Although elected to a five-year term in June with a solid majority, the center-right government is wary of the potential for the kind of social unrest that toppled the previous right-wing government, in 1997. Raffarin is already facing sporadic labor unrest because of a faltering economy and continued moves to privatize state-dominated industries and would want to avoid arousing public anger over an unpopular war with Iraq, the analysts said.

In the debate, leftist members of Parliament demanded that the government use its U.N. veto to block a march to war. Raffarin called Iraq "indisputably a threat to the security of the region," but said using force should be a "last resort." Bowing to anti-U.S. sentiment, the prime minister also said the Bush administration had a "simplistic vision of a war between good and evil."

For France, the question of how best to approach Iraq is wrapped in a complex web of geopolitical interests, economic and commercial concerns, a long history of relations in the Middle East, geographic considerations, and its own volatile population mix.

Among the most pressing concerns are:

• Population. France is home to an estimated 4 million to 5 million Muslims, mostly of North African descent, making it the second-largest community in France. It is also home to some 700,000 Jews. A series of anti-Semitic attacks in the spring underscored how events in the volatile Middle East can easily spill over into France. Many of the attacks were blamed on youths of North African origin responding to Israel's April reoccupation of most of the West Bank and the siege of the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat.

"I don't think economic interests are central to the French position but rather marginal," said Philip H. Gordon, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a French affairs expert. "Much more important is fear of explosion throughout the Middle East that could also spill over to France, as we saw glimpses of last year."

• Geography. France's proximity to the Middle East always raises a fear that instability there could cause an influx of refugees here. "The proximity of the Middle East worries the Europeans generally," said Francois Heisbourg, a French strategic affairs analyst. "It worries the countries that would be hit by the tidal waves of refugees from the Middle East.

• Fear of U.S. domination. This theme was featured among today's protesters.

"If the U.S. attacks Iraq, later they will continue to attack Syria, Iran and other countries," said Michel Samlmon, 49, a financial analyst.

• Fear of unilateral action. There is a general concern in France about the United States acting unilaterally in military affairs, and many French were upset that their armed forces were not called up to do more to help the U.S. operation in Afghanistan last year.

One way France maintains its world role is through its position as one of the five permanent members of the Security Council, and any action taken without the council's blessing is seen here by many as diminishing French influence.

• Economic interests. France has a long history of commercial ties with Iraq, dating back to the early 1970s, when Hussein traveled to Paris, his first trip to a Western capital, and Chirac, a rising political star, returned the favor two years later by visiting Baghdad. Chirac is considered the architect of France's early Iraq policy that provided Hussein with a nuclear reactor (bombed by Israel in 1981) and then supplied Baghdad with Mirage F-1 fighter jets, Exocet missiles and Etendard aircraft during its war with Iran. In exchange, France received oil -- an important concession, because French companies had been largely shut out of the Gulf's oil supplies by U.S., British and Dutch firms.

At the time, the French government regarded Hussein and his Baath Party as a bulwark against Ayatollah Khomeini's fundamentalist regime in Iran. The secular Baathists were modernizing and giving equal rights to women.

Iraq owes French companies about $5 billion. Also, the French oil concern, TotalFinaElf, has been pursuing exploration and development rights to two sites in Iraq, but has been unable to sign a contract as long as U.N. sanctions are in place.

Most of today's anti-war protesters said oil interests were driving U.S., and French, policy. Many carried signs that said, "No war for oil" and similar slogans. "This is a war for power, said Tarek Abdel Malik El Fawaz, a 31-year-old nurse, "for oil, economic interest."

However, few analysts and journalists believe that commercial concerns are at the heart of French policy, and many note that France participated in the first Gulf War. The $5 billion debt, many said, is marginal, and some analysts said that France would actually have more commercial opportunities if Hussein were ousted.